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Value Investing in India and Its Cricket Connection – Research & Ranking

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Indians have two national obsessions – movies and cricket. Movie viewership is a bit fragmented — with one or more out of regional, Bollywood, and Hollywood preferences. In South India, local movies are watched with much more love and affection than Bollywood or Hollywood movies. In Chennai, far more people would’ve shed tears when Velu Naicker (Kamal Hassan in “Nayakan”) died at the end of the movie than those who applauded when Bhuvan (Amir Khan in “Lagaan”) hit a six at the end of the movie to defeat the British team.

Passion for cricket is much more unified. The entire nation prays when Virat Kohli or Rohit Sharma is on 99 runs or when India needs 4 runs in 2 balls to win. The whole of India cried when Sachin Tendulkar gave that emotional retirement speech at Wankhede. As they say, Cricket is our religion, cricketers are our demi-gods”.

The point we are trying to drive is that Indians are more uniform in their love for cricket than in movies. So, we will use cricket to put forth our points about good investing habits! Anything to do with cricket makes for interesting reading and viewing for all of us! And we are sure you’ll love to read this one as well.

There are some amazing similarities between a cricket team and your portfolio! Why not take a few lessons from your biggest passion and apply them to your investments, to your benefit?

Value investing in India or cricket – choose your team wisely

A cricket team has 11 playing members, which includes 4-6 batsmen, 1 wicket-keeper, and 4-6 bowlers. The total adds up to more than 11, you might say, but that’s because some are all-rounders. Also, the wicket-keeper could double up as a batsman as well. Your team must be balanced with respect to the nature of the players – aggressive, cool-headed, some players who can handle pressure well, and so on. You can’t have four Rohit Sharma’s in the team, there have to be some Hardik Pandya’s as well. The team should have a good balance between experienced players and young, emerging players. Apart from Dhoni, Kohli, and Bumrah, you have to give chance to the likes of Ishan Kishan, Mohammed Siraj, and Devdutt Padikkal.

Similarly, your portfolio should have the right mix of stocks – aggressive, defensive, balanced, etc. There must be a mix of Large, mid, and small caps as well. So don’t pile up too many Asian Paints-like stocks; they are wonderful stocks to own, but add an occasional V-Mart or Suprajit Engineering to the portfolio to get that Alpha. Today’s small caps will be tomorrow’s Mid caps and Large caps. So, go for an optimum mix. Have a portfolio that is diversified across sectors, Beta, and Market Cap. Click here to invest in a customized portfolio of 20-25 multibagger stocks.

(Please note that the names of stocks in this blog are for illustrative purposes only and they are not Buy, Sell or Hold recommendations from R&R)

All will not perform well – that’s a given, live with it!

Ever heard of a cricket match where 500 or 600 runs were scored in 50 overs? Never! There’s a reason for that. Not all players perform their best on a given day. One, two, or three batsmen will have a big knock and 1or 2 bowlers will take several wickets. A team is selected on that basis only – the failure/under-performance of some players will be offset by the out-performance of others. That is what makes a winning combination!

A portfolio is structured with similar assumptions – that not all stocks will be multi-baggers. There will be consistent performers that compound at a steady rate, cyclical stocks that will rally as per the commodity cycle, and mid/small caps that will grow at a healthy rate to become multi-baggers of tomorrow. You must ensure that your portfolio sufficiently out-performs the benchmarks over a time frame of 5 years or more.

Quality comes at a price…….Ask IPL team owners!

During an IPL auction, players are bought and sold at a price. Any player with an established track record and several years of experience will fetch a higher price. A few players fetch a higher price despite being newbies. That’s because team owners believe they could be the stars of tomorrow and prove valuable to their team.

At such times, team owners look at the player’s potential, his track record at the domestic, state, and zone levels, and extrapolate it to (likely) future performance. If a player bought at a relatively lower price performs well, the owners strike gold. This buy/sell game does get irrational at times, with owners paying ridiculously high prices for players.

Similarly, the value of a stock value is based on its past track record, future outlook, and management quality, among other factors. Valuations are higher for stocks that are consistent performers. Certain smaller stocks or newly listed companies may also see a spurt in valuations if investors feel that they are potential future winners.

Valuations can get tricky for inexperienced (and sometimes even experienced) investors. So, you may need expert advice to help you separate the wheat from the chaff.

That century he just hit didn’t take him 2 hours, it took him 10 years

When watching a cricket match, you often applaud a player (rightly so) when he bats or bowls brilliantly. You appreciate the player for the wonderful innings he played and the fantastic time you had watching the match. We are sure you marvel at Sachin Tendulkar’s straight drive, Rahul Dravid’s cover drive, MS Dhoni’s near-perfect wicket keeping, or Jasprit Bumrah’s beautiful Yorker.

What we forget is that the feat didn’t happen in two hours, it took over 10 years. Players spend years perfecting their game, sacrificing their personal and family time to give you the entertainment and joy that you so desperately seek. They took no shortcuts; it was sweat, blood, pain, and sacrifice all the way.

It’s the same for portfolio performance and stock picking. The returns fund managers generate are a result of years of reading, learning, making mistakes, spending sleepless nights, and sacrificing personal time to make clients richer. There are no shortcuts there. You may occasionally land up with a few stocks that give you fantastic returns, based on hearsay.

But sustained outperformance doesn’t come with a “fluke”, it takes years of effort. So the next time your fund manager generates market-beating returns over 5 years, remember it is not just 5 years of effort but 15 years of toil. In cricket, in investing, or in life, always remember – “You will certainly fall, it is important to get up and get going”.

Playing cricket/value investing in India is very easy……..everyone is an expert!

In India, there are more than a billion cricket experts!! If a batsman hits a wrong shot and gets out, a bowler bowls a bad spell and gets hit outside the park, or a fielder misses an opportunity, every Indian will have his/her opinion on how it could be avoided. In fact, many even know the outcome of a match before a ball is bowled (of course, in hindsight)!! “Mein to bola tha, xxxxxxxx ko liya to haarna hi tha”, “Mein to bola tha, toss haara to match haarega”, “Are isko batting/bowling nahi ata, aisehi liya hai team me”. These are common dialogues that anyone from a 10-year-old to an 80-year-old will have. In reality, players and team management know the best approach; to cut through the noise and free advice, and focus on playing the game to their best potential. No one can predict the outcome of a game, the key is to give your best in each and every game.

Even on D-street, you’ll find a lot of successful (hindsight) advisors. People who claim they bought Balkrishna Industries when it was sub-Rs. 100, or those who “always knew” that ABC Ltd would be a multi-bagger. There are many “geniuses” who regularly give “priceless advice” to gullible investors.

The key is to stay away from such geniuses. Either do your own research or approach good advisors (such as Research and Ranking). We don’t promise to make your portfolio 100x in 5 years, but we can assure you we’ll offer market-beating returns if you invest with us for a long enough period (5+ years).

We are sure you enjoyed reading this one. Hope it wasn’t a “bouncer”, and you didn’t feel that I was making a “silly point”. Don’t let short-term fluctuations bowl a “Googly” at your portfolio performance. We hope you have a long and fruitful investing “innings”

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